The Science of Home Field Advantage

For as long as the game of baseball has been played, fans and players alike have believed in the power of home field advantage. Teams seemingly play with more enthusiasm and perform better when surrounded by thousands of loyal fans. But how much of this belief is true? Why does it occur? And how much of it can be backed up with science?

Historical Numbers

Since 1901, there have been over 200,000 games played within Major League Baseball. Across all those contests, home teams have won roughly 53.9% of games, per Baseball-Reference. In the Modern Era (1990-present), the home win rate has increased to 54.1%. These numbers hold true in the playoffs, where home teams have won 53.6% of games since 1995 (going 216-187) and 55% of World Series games (105-86) in that span. Some notable examples of home field advantage in the playoffs include the Boston Red Sox, who have an all-time 59.8% home win rate in the playoffs, and the Philadelphia Phillies, who won nearly 70% of home playoff games from 2004-2024. 

In 2020, during the shortened COVID season, fans were not allowed into the ballpark. The result was a home win rate of 52.3%, a decrease of 2%. That translated to 48 fewer home wins league-wide - a sign that the crowd does play a role in performance.

Crowd Effect

For decades, researchers have studied crowd influence on baseball games, yielding some very interesting results. 

According to 2010 research from Cornell University, home teams receive slightly more favorable calls on borderline pitches. In fact, the probability of a close pitch being called a strike increases by 1.5% if it favors the home team. In late-inning, high-leverage situations, that number increases to 3%. 

In addition to umpire bias, crowd noise can rattle opposing pitchers, causing balks or miscommunications. Jeering fans can also rattle position players, causing errors or a lack of concentration at the plate. Studies in sports psychology add that athletes under supportive conditions see noticeable improvements in reaction time and endurance. These effects are magnified in even more raucous environments, like the playoffs.

During the first game of the 2023 NLCS, Major League Baseball tracked the noise level of Citizens Bank Park. Per FOX 29, the loudest reading was 111 dB, which was recorded during a Bryce Harper home run. That's almost as loud as a jet plane taking off!

Ballpark Familiarity

Unlike basketball or football, each MLB stadium has its own unique dimensions and features. That uniqueness magnifies home field advantage.

Some ballparks, like the Athletic's old Coliseum, have large areas of foul territory, enabling fielders, who know the park well, to make outs in spots that visiting fielders cannot. Others, like Minute Maid Park (pre-2016), have quirky features, like Tal's Hill, a sloped area in center field that disoriented visiting fielders. At Tropicana Field, catwalks and domed lighting create challenges on defense that Rays players are accustomed to. At Coors Field, which sits a mile above sea level, balls travel 5-10% further, while at Fenway Park, fielders have to field balls ricocheting off the Green Monster. At Wrigley Field, fielders have to contend with the ivy that covers the outfield wall. 

But ballpark familiarity isn’t just about quirky walls or altitude — it also extends to atmosphere itself. Teams like the Astros and Brewers, who play in retractable-roof stadiums, control climate and noise in a way outdoor parks can’t. A closed roof can amplify crowd sound by several decibels and provide consistent conditions, eliminating variables like wind, humidity, or late-season cold. By contrast, teams in open-air stadiums must constantly adapt to changing weather, which can subtly affect everything from pitch grip to fly-ball carry, although home players know these variables better than their opponents.

Lastly, in both environments, home hitters look out at their accustomed batter's eye, while visitors may struggle to see pitches against an unfamiliar background.  Furthermore, home teams know the dugout and clubhouse layout better, a subtle advantage that makes home players feel more comfortable.

Travel Tax

Baseball has a grueling 162 game schedule that magnifies the impact of travel. MLB teams play 81 road games each year, often across multiple time zones. A 2017 study from Northwestern University found that teams crossing two or more time zones lose an additional 3% of games than teams staying within one time zone (on a home stand). West Coast teams, especially, face a tougher burden when traveling east for a game after a late finish, magnified by the time difference. For example, the Padres might finish a game in San Diego at 1 am ET (10 pm local time), then travel to New York to play a game that same day. Meanwhile, the home team sleeps in their own bed, follows a normal schedule, and avoids jet lag. Home players are also able to enjoy home-cooked meals, spend time with family, and experience their accustomed climate. 

Strategic Advantage

In baseball, as we all know, the home team bats last. This means that they know exactly what they need to win or tie in the 9th inning or extras. This enables teams to make strategic decisions, such as bunting, that hinge on knowing how many runs are needed. They can play for a single run knowing exactly what's needed, unlike the road team that must act more blindly.

Managers can also construct their lineup in a way that suits their own ballpark, as they have played many games there and know its quirks best.

Team Stats

Here's a list of the best ten teams at home from 2015-2025 based on home winning percentage.

Team Name @ Home

1. Los Angeles Dodgers .668

2. New York Yankees .609

3. Houston Astros .606

4. Chicago Cubs .580

5. Tampa Bay Rays .569

6. Cleveland Guardians .569

7. Milwaukee Brewers .564

8. Philadelphia Phillies .562

9. New York Mets .557

10. St. Louis Cardinals .555

Now here's where those teams rank based on overall winning percentage during that span.

Team Name                           Win %

1. Los Angeles Dodgers .617

2. Houston Astros .583

3. New York Yankees .568

4. Cleveland Guardians .548

5. Chicago Cubs .540

6. Milwaukee Brewers .539

7. Tampa Bay Rays .535

8. St. Louis Cardinals .534

9. New York Mets .514

10. Philadelphia Phillies .497

Interestingly, the Mets and Phillies are actually #12 and #16 respectively, if we add all 30 teams to the list. 

Finally, here's the differential between home winning percentage and overall winning percentage. We will call this Home Field Advantage (HFA).

Team Name                              HFA

1. Philadelphia Phillies .065

2. Los Angeles Dodgers .051

3. New York Mets .043

4. New York Yankees .041

5. Chicago Cubs .040

6. Tampa Bay Rays .034

7. Milwaukee Brewers .025

8. Houston Astros .023

9. Cleveland Guardians .021

10. St. Louis Cardinals .021

We can clearly see the Phillies have the best HFA among the ten best performing teams at home. But what about the other 20 teams?

Here is a revised, league-wide ranking.

Team Name                              HFA

1. Philadelphia Phillies .065

2. Colorado Rockies .061

3. Los Angeles Dodgers .051

4. Texas Rangers .049

5. Kansas City Royals .045

6. New York Mets .043

7. Pittsburgh Pirates .043

8. New York Yankees .041

9. Chicago Cubs .040

10. Minnesota Twins .039

11. Baltimore Orioles .035

12. San Francisco Giants .035

13. Miami Marlins .035

14. Tampa Bay Rays .034

15. Los Angeles Angels .033

16. Chicago White Sox .033

17. San Diego Padres .033

18. Toronto Blue Jays .033

19. Cincinnati Reds .027

20. Milwaukee Brewers .025

21. Arizona Diamondbacks .023

22. Houston Astros .023

23. Seattle Mariners .022

24. St. Louis Cardinals .021

25. Detroit Tigers .021

26. Cleveland Guardians .021

27. Oakland Athletics .020

28. Atlanta Braves .018

29. Boston Red Sox .016

30. Washington Nationals .013

It's no surprise to see that Philadelphia's Citizens Bank Park and Colorado's Coors Field have the best home field advantages by a wide margin. Both have unique advantages, namely the loud Philly atmosphere and the high elevation in the "Mile High City" being taxing on non-acclimated, visiting players.

The Phillies are a perfect case study of this HFA stat. From 2014–2024, their overall winning percentage sits below .500 (.497), good for only 16th out of 30 teams. Yet at Citizens Bank Park, they play like an entirely different team, winning 56.2% of home games — the best home-field boost in baseball. That swing of +.065 is larger than the entire gap between an average team and a playoff contender, making their home crowd and ballpark environment one of the most influential in the league.

Another thing that's interesting is the fact that every single team performed better at home than on the road. All 30!

Bottom Line

Home field advantage is a blend of fan noise, environmental quirks, travel fatigue, and psychological boosts that is backed up by statistical edges. While it's never a guarantee, home field advantage can significantly impact outcomes. 

So the next time you hear the crowd erupt after a walk-off, remember - there's a reason they call it home field advantage. Science says the roar of the home fans, the quirks of the park, and the comfort of home combine to give teams that little extra push toward victory.